Why Currency Changes?

Posted on February 7, 2010
Filed Under Forex | Leave a Comment

by Mike Wong

Foreign currency trading is a very common investment. It is so common that I actually saw many elderly trade forex, even though they do not have a lot of forex knowledge. But in order to do a real investment instead of a bet, you need to equip yourself with the basic information and knowledge of foreign currencies.

If you ask me, there are so many factors affecting the currency flotation that I can tell you. But, let us begin with a general but important idea. Economic position and macroeconomics decisions are the two key things to look at for forex trading. It is true and practical that you can easily discover most of the analysts are very familiar with such figures. The basic ones that you need to pay attention to are GNP, interest rates and consumer price index.

One way to study currency trend is to look at the foreign income and foreign expenses incurred on foreign economic activities. Normally, the demand of a foreign currency is indicated by the greater amount of foreign expenses (than the foreign income). As the currency fluctuates based on the demand and supply of currencies, the foreign currency in this case is likely to appreciation in response to the increased demand.

National Income or Gross National Income (GNI) also affects the currency trend. In general, when the national income increases, the people spend more locally. This is in fact an indication of local currency demand. If the demand of local currency remains unchanged, the additional demand on local currency cause it to appreciate.

Even though you see that people’s income is increasing, it does not necessarily mean that the local currency must appreciate. You have to understand the real factor that drives the increase in people’s income. For example, if the increase in income is driven by a series of government policies or demand, you may not see the appreciation of local currency. Why? Usually the government demand is so big that additional foreign imports are required. In this case, the demand on foreign imports or foreign currencies induces appreciations of foreign currencies.

Inflation rate is another fundamental factor that affects currency fluctuation. If a nation has over issued its currency which exceeds the demand in product purchasing, there will be inflation. Inflation decreases the purchasing power of the people and therefore leads to currency depreciation. In general sense, the local currency depreciates means the foreign currencies appreciate.

The main factors affecting currency fluctuation are basically covered here. There are still many other factors causing currency appreciation and depreciation. You should get yourself more well prepared before invest in forex!